Sunday, February 08, 2026

AI view on resistance to Trump

This piece is from my blog, "Conversations with AI" (https://smartypantsgemini.blogspot.com/) which explores current AI's ability to "think" like a human. I repost it here because of its many faceted relevance. D.L.

In recent weeks Google's AI, Gemini, has given me critical assistance in repairing my dishwasher, the charge control on my EV, and treatment of an inguinal rash, so it occurred to me that a machine this knowledgeable could possibly give me historical perspectives on the possibility of halting or slowing down President Trump's march towards dictatorship, a subject that concerns me more and more each day. After overcoming my shame at asking an AI to confirm or deny my pre-existing views on a subject, I submitted this question to Gemini:

"Based on historical perspective, has President Trump's developing dictatorship reached the point where it is too late to organize effective resistance?"

To my horror, Gemini confirmed my worst fears, garnished with a highly speculative optimism. Read it and maybe weep.

Gemini's response:

"In political science, the 'point of no return' for a democracy is usually defined as the moment when a regime can successfully ignore the law, the courts, and the public without consequence.

As of early 2026, the United States is in a period of significant democratic backsliding, with international observers like Human Rights Watch and academic experts from Harvard noting a rapid move toward 'competitive authoritarianism.' However, historical and current data suggest that it is not too late for non-government organization—though the window of opportunity has narrowed and the risks have increased.

The Current State of Resistance (2025–2026): The U.S. is seeing a shift from traditional politics (lobbying and voting) to a more confrontational model of civic resistance."

Non-Government Mobilization: Groups like Indivisible (which focusses on local government) and various labor unions are coordinating efforts to "delay, distract, and limit" federal actions. In January 2026, widespread protests erupted across major cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, and Los Angeles following fatal shootings involving federal immigration agents.

Tactical Shift: Because many federal guardrails (like the Department of Justice and certain courts) have been neutralized or staffed with loyalists, resistance has moved to non-violent civil disobedience.

State-Level Pushback: "Sanctuary" states and cities (such as California and Chicago) are acting as the primary institutional holdouts, refusing to cooperate with federal mandates and filing lawsuits to block executive orders.

Why It’s Not too late: Political scientists like Steven Levitsky and Erica Chenoweth point to several factors that suggest the situation is still fluid:

The 3.5% Rule: Historical data suggests that if a non-violent movement can mobilize just 3.5% of the population in sustained protest, they have never failed to achieve political change.

Internal Fragmentation: No administration is a monolith. Resistance is often successful when it forces "splits" in the ruling coalition. We are seeing early signs of this as some state-level Republicans and civil servants begin to resist specific federal directives (e.g., the Indiana State Senate’s recent refusal to redistrict on federal request).

The 2026 Midterms: While there are deep concerns about federal interference in elections, the 2026 midterm elections remain a critical focal point for organized resistance. If the opposition can flip the House, it would create a massive legislative and oversight "speed bump" for the administration.

The New Risks: Unlike 2017, the 2026 landscape is much more dangerous for non-government actors:

Violence and Enforcement: Federal agents are being deployed domestically with more frequency and less restraint.

Corporate and Academic Silence: Many "pillars of society"—big law firms, tech companies, and universities—have begun to "self-censor" or strike deals with the administration to avoid losing funding or facing retribution.

Conclusion: It is not too late, but the 'battleground' has shifted. Resistance is no longer just about whom you vote for; it has moved into the realm of organized civic refusal—the same kind of "parallel society" tactics used by movements like Solidarity in Poland, which, after initial success, fell apart due largely to resistance from officials from the previous regime"

A major omission in Gemini's overview is the likelihood that the Trump administration will start wars to distract from whatever grass roots opposition might arise. Imagine how the ICE protests, for instance, would lose most or all of its public attention after a major terrorist attack. There is no current protest movement that could overcome such an end-run around protest.

Another omission in the Gemini account is lack of mention of the most distinctive difference in the nature of our protest from those of the past: Though many don’t think about it, we are in fact protesting the imminent replacement of current humanity with an AI enhanced, bio-engineered humanity. Not that anyone can stop this transition, but can we at least promote influences over it other than from would-be plutocrats?

Regarding the proper attitude, as many pessimists have discovered, there is no point to total pessimism, in terms of the effectiveness of public resistance or indeed any effort. For this reason (the need for things to have a point) I continue to dream of a significant political movement against our takeover that could survive and be effective even if a Trump induced World War III arrives. Such a movement would need to have more than public support; it would need forces from within the government, and a few enlightened billionaires.

What will actually happen? All we can know for sure is that optimism by itself will not be sufficient to halt the coming dictatorship. It couldn't hurt in terms of maintaining the effort, but without insiders and billionaires, forget it.
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AI view on resistance to Trump

This piece is from my blog, "Conversations with AI" ( https://smartypantsgemini.blogspot.com/ ) which explores current AI's ...