Friday, November 15, 2024

Does Trump have a long view?

In spite of his first presidency and outré pronouncements, President-elect Trump is an unknown, at least regarding his views on the current radical acceleration of human physical and mental evolution, in which after a period of 300,000 years where we did not change much, we are undergoing unbelievably rapid change right now, stimulated by revolutions in AI and biology. In a few decades, the post-World War II generations alive today will register as primitive humanity, and yet Trump, along with Harris and all the political leaders of the world, says not a word about the imminent shift.

At the current overwhelming pace of societal change, 4 years is a long time, so Trump is positioned to be an important influence on upcoming human evolution. Many people wonder how such a man attained this position. The answer is that Trump is a strategic thinker. The buffoonish caricature portrayed on Saturday Night Live is based on a persona that Trump uses strategically, and clearly the strategy has been accurate. We can debate Trump’s morality, but let's drop the idea that he's dumb.

You might argue that though Trump is politically shrewd, he does not care about future Earth and humanity; he does not have a long view.

We can only guess, but however Trump does or doesn’t evolve in his second term, our proclaimed democracy needs an update, a new representative force in addition to political parties and candidates who are fixated only on the next election. Perhaps we could take an idea from Isaac Asimov and create a foundation (from the novel of the same name) or a trust, made up of scholars, experts, and, crucially, retired English teachers, whose mission would be to consider future decades, centuries, perhaps millennia. That could be a welcome improvement after the exhausting, silly and wasteful national election campaign we just endured.

ISIS: A virtual reality


[This piece is reposted from 4/9/22, updated in the context of Israel vs. Hamas/Hezbollah and Ukraine vs. Russia, with reference to more recent ISIS attacks]

The history of the phrase "virtual reality" takes a twisty path from its Latin roots. Of course, by the time children are in middle school they know what virtual reality is, but ask them to define it. Then ask yourself.  In this essay I assemble what knowledge I can about "virtual reality" and the role the concept plays in modern society.  At the end I relate what I find to our conception of the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS (with addendums on the Israel vs. Hamas/Hebollah and Russia vs. Ukraine and renewed ISIS wars).

A good dictionary (in this case Merriam-Webster) covers the basics: "Virtual" is related to the noun, "virtue," which we know to mean, "a morally good quality," like integrity or honesty, from Latin virtus, "merit," "perfection," from vir, "man."  The transition from vir to the rest is an etymological puzzle (while you're at it, consider "woman of virtue"), but my focus here is the equally mystifying modern usage of "virtual."

Back to the dictionary- there are three broad definitions of "virtual":

1: Modern common use: "Almost or nearly as described, but not completely or according to strict definition : the troops stopped at the virtual border."  Virtual borders are not official borders on a map, but de facto borders, determined by use.

Note: Only definition #1 clearly references the historic usage of virtue,  retained in our word "virtuous," meaning "exhibiting virtues."  In the example above, virtual borders have the "virtue" of being observed by practice, though not the virtue of being indicated on maps.

2: In Computing: "Not physically existing as such but made by software to appear to exist, e.g., a virtual doorway;"  In other words, imaginary.

3: Physics: "Denoting particles or interactions with extremely short lifespans and indefinitely great energies, postulated as intermediates in some processes."  That is, particles, or things, that exist for such a brief period of time that their reality as things is questionable.

One might think that virtual reality derives from definition #3, since it is the most confusing.  Does the length of time that something exists have bearing on the reality of its existence?  In galactic time, humans do not exist very long. Does that mean ours is a lesser existence?  That subject will have to wait for another essay, however, since virtual reality derives from #2, which means, as noted, imaginary.

[Note: I'm going to leave the definition of "reality" as "things that are real," a cop-out perhaps because Merriam-Webster informs us that "reality" derives from the Sanskrit for "property," something to do with "wealth and goods" being real things- a philosophical question for another essay.]

Under virtual reality we get: "The computer-generated simulation of a three-dimensional image or environment that can be interacted with in a seemingly real or physical way by a person using special electronic equipment, such as a helmet with a screen inside or gloves fitted with sensors."

The question I ask at this point is, why do we need to conceive of computer-generated simulation as a type of reality?  We never had that need with novels, plays or movies. Those are not types of realities.  They are imaginary.

In modern, media based culture, we seem to have concluded that reality is manufactured by us. We get support for this notion from TV news.   If the news show we watch shares our bias, our brain allows the television to hook-up with its perceptual apparatus, as a sort of adjunct brain, at least mine does. When I watch a TV news report from a war front on a station matching my bias, my mind gravitates towards belief. If I watch a story on a station that does not match my bias, I am skeptical. In a twist on "confirmation bias," my brain is requiring that its perception of reality be moderated by outer mechanisms that match its bias, in other words that reality be manufactured.

In addition to the news, we have "reality shows." These are shows in which people behave in stage-managed ways, realistic, as far as I can parse the usage, only in the sense that the behavior is real on the show that manufactures it.

One could defend this new definition of reality as manufactured by pointing out that unlike past ages when, for example, young men recruited for the Crusades were told that various events were happening in the Holy Land that required invasion, those events were held to be real, not virtually real.  So our culture, by holding that an event can be credited that is only virtually real though not necessarily really real, admits a pervasive doubt into our discourse, and doubt is a virtue.

But the extended context is not so hopeful- it suggests that we don't require actual reality from our media, that it is enough to produce simulated, virtual reality, as video games do.

It is in this context that I consider ISIS, which, in 2014, with its professionally produced, ready for prime time video of a Jordanian pilot burning to death in a cage, realized the predictions of numerous science fiction novels, from the media-mediated wars of George Orwell's 1984 to the blurred lines between war and mass entertainment in Suzanne Collins' Hunger Games.  On the day the ISIS video was released, ABC national news anchor David Muir described its "high production values," adding that, "No Hollywood studio could have done better," as if he were delivering a movie review.  In a sense he was.

The other day a friend showed me a video from a source on the Internet that purported to be a recording of the transmission from a U.S. drone that was conducting an attack on ISIS ground troops in Syria who were attacking the Peshmerga (Kurdish enemies of ISIS, thus our allies).  It was a nighttime attack, the ground troops glowing white through infrared lenses. The chatter from drone control, which was hundreds or thousands of miles from the scene, was dispassionate but engaged, technical, referencing targets and coordinates, ordering rocket and 30mm fire that resulted moments later in white flashes where running forms had been.  It looked exactly like a video game.  I could have been pounding my thumbs blasting aliens or Kazakhs (a favorite game foe for a while).  Orson Scott Card's Ender's Game comes to mind, in which hot-shot 9th grade gamers are told by the military that they are trying out a new training video, while they are in fact fighting real aliens (Spoiler alert: Book III reveals that the "invading" aliens were on a peaceful mission).

What do these musings have to do with the real ISIS?  I should add that my point is not that ISIS is not real.  It's hard to see how its actions could be faked.  A man really was burned; people were really beheaded; many European and American cities were really terrorized by fanatics.  I'm talking about the sober thinking behind ISIS, specifically their marketing department, and they clearly have one. The War of ISIS is packaged for young men the way a video game would be packaged. Consider how you'll be watching a TV show that young people also watch, and suddenly there's a commercial for a video game showing CGI heroes blasting a variety of monsters, with titles like End of Doom Part III!  Now it's Return of ISIS- The Reckoning!  

Commentators have wondered where ISIS comes from and what it wants. It is not a country, or associated with one.  It has no past as an established enemy. But its genesis in no secret. ISIS formed in reaction to persecutions of Iraqi Sunnis by U.S. imposed Shia leaders, after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq that toppled Sunni leader Saddam Hussein. ISIS was in effect born of U.S. policy, continuing the pattern of post-World War II conflicts in which we indulge our need to fight enemies by creating them- as we do with video games.

In other words, ISIS is not entirely real.  Virtually, though, it's real enough. It certainly has no problem with ratings, though ISIS is at heart a transitory organization, dependent on outside support.  On its own it does not have the staying power of a profitable video game.  The best outcome would be to win this war quickly, as well as virtually and really.  

[Update, 11/4/23: The Israel vs. Hamas/Hezbollah war, like the war against ISIS, is both real and virtual. In America its reality is bolstered because many people instantly identify with one side or the other, and because people on both sides are maimed and killed. The virtual parts are the competing storylines of the conflict's background, such that someone new to the subject could read all the facts in the opposing accounts and come away with no idea what to think, because the same facts, accepted by each side but filtered through different perspectives, support antithetical narratives and draw antithetical conclusions. Undecided Americans will be overruled by the passion and argumentation of those who are sure of their connection to the conflict. Contrast this with Ukraine vs. Russia, which takes a back seat now because it does not grab us the same way. But it will not stay in the back seat for long. There is too much invested in Ukraine vs. Russia to let it go, but how can it compete with Israel vs. Hamas/Hezbollah? Since nuclear threat is probably the only way to stimulate American interest in Ukraine vs. Russia, don't be surprised by a nuclear crisis stemming from the war, especially in light of Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that he is storing tactical nukes in Belarus near the Ukrainian border and may use them against Ukraine.]  

[Update, 3/23/24: The implication of the essay above is that ISIS is something of a fabrication. That's an important question considering the horrific attack of 3/22/24 on concert-going civilians in Russia, for which a putative ISIS took credit. The question becomes: If ISIS is a historically disconnected, fabricated entity, who controls it? What are its goals? The answers seem to change from theater to theater. In the case of the recent attack on Russian civilians, Russia says the attack was directed by Ukraine, with no reference to ISIS. Hamas says that Israel and the CIA directed the attack through ISIS. The U.S. says that ISIS is an independent terrorist group that committed the attack independently, as indicated by its claiming to have done so. The "facts" on all sides are as antithetical to each other as the "facts" on either side of Israel vs Hamas/Hezbollah, or Ukraine vs. Russia. This is purposeful. We are not supposed to understand what's going on with these potential triggers of World War III, but it's clear what's going on: Current civilization is under threat of being dismantled by violent covert or overt forces. I don't recommend total pessimism, but to avoid it we need a politically influential group that describes and discusses things as they are, to save us from intellectual suffocation and keep hope alive.]  

[Update, 11/18/24: In the next seven posts I've temporarily switched focus from the manipulated triggering of World War III to one of the purposes of that triggering: the introduction of radical new technologies. While we're busy being blown up, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and biological manipulation will move in to restructure the faulty human model. The upcoming posts recount my "conversations" with Google's AI, Gemini, which have led me to expect that AI by itself will change us more than most spokespeople in related industries are publicly speculating.]

[Update, 11/19/24: If I were still writing about “triggering World War III,” I’d note that lame-duck President Biden, with his alleged OK (there has been no public comment) of Ukraine launching U.S. supplied long-range missiles into Russia, is left holding the bag for what may turn out to be the basic trigger of WW III. Now incoming Trump and everyone else can say, "Don't blame me- Biden did it!"]

Journey to Bhutan

Day 1 It's actually happening: I'm sitting in the terminal at LAX with my wife, Susan; it's almost Thanksgiving dinnertim...