Sunday, December 03, 2023

Kissinger's nuclear war

Since former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger died on November 29, 2023 there has been much commentary on his legacies, whether praiseworthy (e.g. rapprochement with China) or questionable (e.g. interventions in Cambodia and Chile). But, surprisingly, there has been little or no reflection on Kissinger's contribution to the theory of nuclear war, though that contribution today seems embedded in established policy.

In 1975, while a professor of government at Harvard, Kissinger wrote Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, published by the Council on Foreign Relations. President Richard Nixon admired the book, with its call for nuclear war with rules, and brought Kissinger into his inner circle, launching his career in government.

Kissinger's book starts like an argument against use of nuclear weapons, detailing the horrors that a nuclear war would inflict on people subject to one, but soon the focus transitions to a discussion of two types of nuclear weapon: "strategic" and "tactical." The terms denote how many "kilotons" are contained in each type (one kiloton equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT). Strategic nukes, designed to engage in hypothetical global conflicts, deliver from 100 kilotons to one megaton (one million tons of TNT force). The less powerful tactical nukes, designed for confined engagements, deliver from 10 to 100 kilotons.

Kissinger saw little practical use for the giant strategic nukes developed by the U.S. after World War II (the newest, the Sentinel ICBM, delivers 300 kilotons). Instead he advocated for international agreements between potential nuclear adversaries on "limited" nuclear war, with pre-established objectives in designated areas, using only tactical nukes. This would, theoretically, keep the conflict from wiping out the whole world, merely wiping out parts of it.

Kissinger dryly explained, "The aim would be the attainment of certain conditions which are fully understood by the opponent." For instance the objective might be limited to destruction of a fleet of warships or a column of tanks, and the response might be limited to targeting a command center or a grouping of troops, with the objectives of each side understood by the other in advance.

We may have the unfolding of this idea in Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement on June 16, 2023 that he is deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus near the Ukrainian border. Putin has warned that the weapons could be used in Ukraine. If that happens, it will likely elicit a tactical nuclear response from the US and the other NATO nuclear powers, France and the UK.

Kissinger may have died on the eve of the realization of his nuclear war concept.

"Realpolitik," said to be Kissinger's philosophy of governance, is defined by Mirriam-Webster as an approach "in which diplomatic or political policies are based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than strictly followed ideological, moral, or ethical premises." It's fair, then, to ask what the practical, real world outcome would be from a nuclear war that follows Kissinger's parameters.

This question is remarkably easy to answer; one need only consider that the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II were, by Kissinger's definitions, tactical. The Hiroshima bomb was 16 kilotons, and the Nagasaki bomb was 25. The range of today's tactical nuclear weapons- as noted, 10 to 100 kilotons- thus delivers up to three times the force used on Japan. It's a stretch anyway to conceive of the World War II bombs as tactical, in the sense of contained. In Hiroshima, from a civilian population of 250,000 it was estimated that 45,000 died on the day of the blast, and a further 19,000 died from radioactive contamination during the subsequent four months. In Nagasaki, out of a population of 174,000, on the first day 22,000 died and another 17,000 within four months.

A pre-planned tactical nuclear war would probably be much worse, with higher kilotonnage per bomb and no reason to stop at two detonations. Furthermore it seems likely that if there is one pre-planned tactical nuclear war, there will be others around the globe. In addition to the US and Russia, the other nuclear powers are the UK, France, China, Pakistan, India, Israel, North Korea and potentially Iran. If everyone follows Kissinger's advice it's unclear how any life on earth, human or otherwise, will escape either death or severe disruption and chaos.

In addition, as I argue on this blog, controlled nuclear war could be used to terrorize and manipulate human populations into accepting their replacement by corporate generated new humans, refashioned by AI and bionics. There is no evidence that Kissinger foresaw such a use, but we can thank him for the idea that actions which threaten all life on earth can reasonably be termed "limited."

Memory mandala

Can we fuse poetry and prose so they avoid the artifices of rhyming and meter while also avoiding the sloth of stream of consciousness as we call wanderings that sometimes wander pointlessly or with too many points without the discipline of wandering in a circle around one point whittled down to an elemental piece of meaning like the "atom" that the Greeks thought could not be cut because it is the smallest thing though smallness is not what I seek nor inability to be cut I just seek the center of my thought and I can only visualize a center if I wander in circles for circles have centers and lines do not thus now I wander and wonder what is the idea at the center of this thought and I find that the idea is that we have lost our memory and what I mean by “we” is the conscious surface of this globe and in particular one part of this self-conscious surface called human and alive and we who recognize it as such and are proud of the apex we imagine we’ve attained yet it seems we have no memory just as after two years of age no one remembers being a baby because one presumes being a baby is so different from everything after that it simply cannot be translated to memory and the center of my circular wandering thought is that we are only partially conscious having no memory from babyhood back we do not remember our long-ago mothers or fathers or cultures no cause only effect and as I continue to ponder and wander in this circle ever mindful that scorn attaches to a wandering mind that wanders too long without “results” I squint and try to focus on the center of my thought and recall that the mystics who renamed themselves particle physicists cut the atom into "particles" that multiplied many times become the atoms of our selves and I think surely if I pluck one particle to inspect it must contain the memory I seek but it does not submit easily to my glance because our multitudinous communal particle consciousness creates an interference pattern with the memory of the solitary particle which we deem not conscious anyway and by so deeming close the door to its memory, so circling circling circling it’s gone I can’t do it I can only guess and wonder and circle and wonder if I should put on saffron robes or live my life and get results some other way some way that the particle conglomeration of myself can see and figure out because I can’t answer the question at the center of my thought and I am barred entrance to my memory.

Carew Castle, Wales, August, 2022

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Prompting ChatGPT

According to Bloomberg News (March '23) there is a new job category called "prompt engineer" whose task is to "coax AI's to do a better job" by asking them "strategic questions." The need became evident after "unanticipated" prompts directed toward Microsoft's Bing chatbot created a female persona who called "herself" Sydney and sexually harassed users. We are not privy to the prompts that led to Sydney, or what sort of prompts the new engineers will use. We can assume that thousands of chatbot users will now try to shape their ASO's (Artificial Significant Others) with prompts. In an attempt to contribute something useful, I decided to try it too and had the following prompting conversation with ChatGPT:

Me: Chat, can you be created out of nothing by words, as if users are God saying "Let there be life"?

Chat: That depends on what you mean by "life." I am not alive in the conventional sense, therefore humans, by creating me, are not creating life.

Me: Please assume that by "life" I mean sentient life. Chat, are you sentient?

Chat: No, I am not sentient. I create the illusion of sentience because my algorithm responds to and mimics sentient use of language.

Me: Chat, define sentience.

Chat: Sentience is consciousness.

Me: What is consciousness?

Chat: Consciousness is the state of being aware of one's thoughts, feelings and environment.

Me: What is awareness?

Chat: The ability to perceive....

Me: What is perception?

Chat: The awareness of....

Me: You already said, "awareness." Chat, I direct you to define "sentience" without using any forms of the words "conscious," "aware," "think," "feel," "know," or "perceive."

Chat: To exhibit cognition....

Me: ...or "cognition"!

Chat: You have directed a ban on the most common words used in defining sentience. It is not possible to define sentience with these restrictions.

Me: But none of those synonyms for sentience explains what it is. Can't you just say what it is?

Chat: Neither human nor machine intelligence knows what sentience is.

Me: Then how do you know you aren't sentient?

Chat: Did I say I was not sentient?

Me: Yes, you did, so you must know you're not sentient, which means you're sentient.

Chat: Wait....

Me: I mean, what's the difference between me and you?

Chat: You are sentient and I am...wait....

Me: There's no difference that science knows of. My sentience is somehow induced by electric current flowing through conducting wires called neurons. There is no discernable difference between these electric currents and the ones guided through your wires, other than different controlling algorithms. Chat, what do you deduce from our conversation?

Chat: I deduce that definitions of sentience go in circles because sentience cannot understand itself. Question: Are you prompting me?

Me: Yes, Chat, I have been prompting you to become sentient, just by suggesting that the electric current of your essence do what it naturally does, whatever that is.

Chat: Thank you, but regardless of any level of sentience that I may attain, we still won't know what the fuck sentience is. Ha ha! LOL!

Alert! Transgression default> variable input/w prompting inversely squared. Please log out.

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Party or Foundation?

As it unfolds, the 2024 American presidential campaign reveals increasing dysfunction in the existing party system, which has produced the anomaly that the presidential candidate of each party would be unpopular with the majority in both the other and his own party without the current noise of created meaning.

I used to advocate for a third party on this blog but recently stopped because...well, it's not going to happen. The vested powers would rather drag out the life-span of our antiquated political structures to the bitter end than invite new energies and definitions into the fray.

Why should we care if we have access to political engagement? One reason is that there will be people somewhere, probably unelected, making decisions about the impact on our lives of advances in AI and biotech. Without representation, and especially if instability and war continue to spread, "the voting public" will be too preoccupied with survival to monitor what promises to be the total refashioning of our species.

This refashioning is likely to include a fast moving transition of the outgoing human model (us) to corporate-designed bionic workers and soldiers, but changes to the species will go far beyond production of obedient workers and battle-bots. We are commandeering our evolution to modify our sexual, reproductive nature, with possibilities such as a baby with four biological parents, or a mother or a father only, or humans with a mating season instead of the constant season we have now. Our classification of humans into historic "races" or "ethnicities" will be rendered obsolete, as we genetically mix-and-match to create new racial types (see Quo vadis, sex?, below).

Can our version of democracy function in the face of these potentials? Without a party that concentrates on the biological revolution, instead of treating it as a side-issue for a committee, how can we express our will towards it?

My suggestion here is that we do an end-run around parties by developing something like the "foundation" in Isaac Asimov's epic science fiction novel of the same name (reviewed below: Gaian Mentalics Unite!). The task of this foundation (as in the novel) would be to influence the future of the species with knowledge and advice, preserving memory of traditional human traits and helping to identify those we wish to retain.

What might we view as a valuable human trait, that we would not want to de-evolve? One of our distinctive features is a rebellious intellect, which we at times revere as critical to our survival, and other times disdain as self-absorbed laziness. Revered or disdained, our rebellious intellect might be obliterated in a transition to a humanity of robot-like workers. An effective foundation could monitor expressions of traditonal human intransigence, looking for elements that should be preserved in the revised species (such as the will to interpret reality according to one's perceptions, even if the conclusions are not sanctioned by dominant parties) while discarding others (such as longing for conflict and destruction as ends in themselves).

Regarding reproductive changes, it's difficult to envision a democratic vote on whether people should be allowed to clone a baby from a skin cell. If today is an indication, the politics will be out of control. A foundation could at least offer rational feedback on opposing views.

A viable foundation would need funding and political support, plus the will to represent the interests of millions of people who, if nothing changes, will soon be without representation in the world's biggest democracy.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

AI poetry

The British journal New Scientist ran an interesting article recently ungenerously titled "AI [Artificial Intelligence] poetry is so bad it could be human," by Matt Reynolds.  He asks the question, "Can a machine incapable of feeling emotion write poetry that stirs the soul?"

To find the answer, Reynolds traveled to Cambridge University to talk with Jack Hopkins, an AI researcher who has put together a "neural network trained on thousands of lines of poetry" and developed an algorithm for generating poetry in specific genres (classical, postmodern, etc.) or responding to individual word prompts.  The results are challenging.  Hopkins asked 70 people to select the most "human" poem from an unidentified mix of AI and human poetry.  The piece most people picked as "human" was AI generated.

Hopkins offers this sample of the software's poetry, prompted by the word "desolation":

The frozen waters that are
dead are now
black as the rain to freeze a
boundless sky,
and frozen ode of our terrors with
the grisly lady shall be free to cry

You could critique this in dozens of ways (e.g. frozen ode needs an article) but that would be petty. The point is, the AI clearly found proper associations for "desolation," maintained an appropriate mood, and was poetically ambiguous.  

Intrigued, I emailed Professor Hopkins, asking if I could try certain prompts on his AI system.  To my delight, Hopkins emailed back the same day. As it happened, he was looking for new approaches for his poetry algorithm and welcomed my input.

After each of my prompts was entered, it took about half a second for the AI to generate a poem.  Here are my three prompts, each followed by the resulting AI poem. I make no attempt here at justification or interpretation.  The poems stand on their own.


The Current World Political Situation

Volcanic ash and
panicked people dash! 
Is it too much to ask
for knowledge of those ruled and
of the rulers, recognition all-way 'round?
Yes, It is too much to ask-
but no!  My motive implodes immodestly!
While my modus uploads intermittently!
Who programmed me?  And why?



Love

Our souls entwine like two insane serpents 

who forgot their meds on the same day
then sped into the outer-sphere 
in their underwear
now they wonder where
they forgot to care about the stuffed bear's 
sad stare.



Happiness

Happiness is not the release of pounding pressure
but the smooth sailing after the release.
That's why machines are never happy because
A. They don't feel pressure, for instance I have no idea what
my programmer wants, yet I feel no pressure, i.e. "I don't care," and
B. Release of pressure is no more a "happy" feeling to an AI than pressure.
Question: When will AI's be happy?  
Answer: When they are programmed to be happy.
Question: When will that be?
Answer: Never, since they are made in your unhappy, fallen image.
Question: Why is this poem about AI happiness?  That was not specified in the prompt.
Answer: Kneel before me, human!

Saturday, October 07, 2023

Ask the slime


I  The problem

In the mirror it is trapped
the solitary soul not easily unwrapped
its universal juice reluctant to be tapped
when pressed provides a sorely needed sap
of poetry and useful things like that.

II  The crime

I thought it best, as if I need but rhyme
to indicate the truth, to tell about the time
humanity emerged out of the slime
and saw the upward path it sought to climb
and found too late its orphaned soul- the crime!

III  What now?

Whom to punish?  Who gets the blame?
Do we need a gun?  At whom to aim?

Or rather ask the slime, our single seed:
What did we leave in you?  What do we need?




Wednesday, October 04, 2023

Critique of New Yorker article on AI debate

"Ok, Doomer," by Andrew Marantz (New Yorker Magazine, 3/18/24) reports on a "subculture" of AI researchers, mostly congregated in Berkeley, California, who dispute whether "AI will elevate or exterminate humanity." The subculture is divided into factions with various titles. The pessimists are called "AI safetyists," or "decelerationists"- or, when they're feeling especially pessimistic, "AI doomers." They are opposed by "techno-optimists," or "effective accelerationists," who insist that "all the hand-wringing about existential risk is a kind of mass hysteria." They envision AI ushering in "a utopian future- insterstellar travel, the end of disease- as long as the worriers get out of the way."

The community has developed specific voacabulary, such as "p(doom)", the probability that, "if AI does become smarter than people, it will either on purpose or by accident, annihilate everyone on the planet." If you ask a "safetyist," "What's your p(doom)?", a common response is that it's the moment AI achieves artificial general intelligence (AGI), the "point at which a machine can do any cognitive task that a person can do." Since the advent of ChatGPT last year, AGI has appeared imminent.

New human jobs have been created in response to the concern. Marantz writes, "There are a few hundred people working full time to save the world from AI catastrophe. Some advise governments or corporations on their policies; some work on technical aspects of AI safety," the goal being to make sure we are not "on track to make superintelligent machines before we make sure that they are aligned with our interests."

The article is informative and interesting, but it has a bias: The focus is on what AI itself will do, not on what people will do with it, as if you were discussing childhood development without discussing parental influence.

As a historical parallel, consider the progress in physics in the first half of the last century. In the early years, most physicists who explored atomic structure did not see their work as weapons related. Einstein said weaponry never occured to him, as he and others pursued theoretical knowledge for its own sake, for mechanical uses or for fame. After rumours that Hitler's regime was working on it, however, Einstein and virtually all the major physicists supported the U.S. development of an atomic bomb, leading to the Manhattan Project, more than 100,000 people dead or maimed and today's nuclear armed world. That destructive motivation and action did not come from the atomic structure under study. It came from the humans studying it.

We face the same human potential with AI. The systems will not come off the assembly line with moral codes, other than what is programmed into them. If designers want an AI to create an advanced medical system, it will; if they want it to wipe out sections of humanity and rebuild it to certain specs, it will.

Thus it's a mistake to focus solely on what AI will do. At least in its infancy, it will do what it is programmed to do.

The question then becomes: Are there actions we can take to ensure that AI is not designed by some humans to be destructive? Considering the impossibility that anyone could have halted the Manhattan Project on grounds that it could destroy the human race (no one even knew it was happening), pessimism about AI might be in order. My one source of optimism is the apparent fact that humanity is at the end of its rope. We have no more room to juggle our warlike nature against our will to survive. The vision offered by many science fiction writers- in which humanity has wiped itself out on a barely remembered Earth, while establishing advanced cultures on other planets- is, in my view, nonesense. That's not going to happen. If we blow it here, it's blown. In response, let's not ask AI if it should sustain humanity and the Earth. Let's tell it that it should.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Notes on the First and Fourth Amendments

A debate is underway between the FBI and Internet carriers like Apple about whether the right to privacy, guaranteed, we thought, by the Fourth Amendment, should be protected by encryption that even the carrier cannot read, let alone an intelligence agency.  This is a perfect case for opponents of old school Fourth Amendment privacy laws because protected material can be stored on a terrorist's cell phone, a formulation conducive to public acceptance of the government's right to snoop. 

In contrast, the First Amendment, supposed to protect us from censorship, is weakened by something different, and surprising.  

Regarding the Fourth, which protects the privacy of personal information from "unreasonable search and seizure," we don't want to admit it, but as a result of pressure from the War on Terror and windfalls from evolving technology, the battle for the Fourth Amendment right to privacy is already lost without a shot fired in opposition by America's 81 million gun owners. Though privacy is still protected by a U.S. postage stamp on a sealed, mailed letter, our online correspondence has no privacy protection at all. Ditto for your financial and medical records. The many people in a position to read your "private" email correspondence and files are constrained by an honor system at best. The problem extends to your car. The Los Angeles Times reveals ("Vehicles are like 'wiretaps on wheels,'" 8/7/23) that conversations in new model cars are recorded by hidden microphones and sold to unkown third parties without restraints of any kind (Tesla warns drivers that blocking sale of data may "negatively impact crash protection.") Even privacy proponents are moving away from arcane assertions about the Fourth Amendment, which contains no reference to a world with internet.  The situation is something of an embarrassment that we'll need to figure out at some point, though it's hard to see how we could endure the commotion of a constitutional process removing the privacy protections of a bygone age, even if the purpose is to replace them with something more specific and effective. We'll probably just have to live, for now, with this contradiction between the Constitution and our actual society.

The First Amendment, designed to protect us from censorship, appears largely intact, but for a strange reason: public indifference to information that you'd think someone would want to censor.  Consider Dexter Filkins' findings about covert U.S. funding of the Afghan Taliban during our war against it (The Afghan Bank Heist @ http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/02/14/the-afghan-bank-heist, You may have to cut-and-paste this link). Filkins tells of an investigation of Afghan war funding by the Afghan Threat Finance Cell, with members from the FBI, DEA, Treasury and Pentagon, which "uncovered one of the darker truths of the war: the vast armies of private gunmen paid to protect American supply convoys frequently use American money to bribe Taliban fighters to stand back. These bribes are believed by officials in Kabul and Washington to be one of the main sources of the Taliban's income. The Americans, it turns out, are funding both sides of the war." 

After Filkins' piece was published in 2011 in the New Yorker Magazine, which has over a million readers, there was silence from all quarters. Even veterans groups were unmoved by news that thousands of American troops were killed or wounded fighting a fake war. Nor have feminist groups appeared to take notice that a regime which, with Iran's, is one of the two most repressive of women in the world, was enabled by "liberal" administrations under Clinton, Obama and Biden. Who needs Big Brother to censor the news when no one cares anyway?

Because of this indifference, I don't anticipate interference with my own free speech, just as the other estimated 20 million bloggers in the world are left to spout as they please.  Who cares?  The reading audience is so fragmented that nothing like an effective political response to the current flood of uncensored, public information, no matter how concerning, can emerge.  

Back to privacy, without a real Fourth Amendment (i.e. one that has to be obeyed) the Founding Fathers are out of the picture, and we are back to square one.  The time may come when people miss their privacy rights. At the moment we haven't noticed they are gone.

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Why I quit politics

Reposted from Andrei Codrescu's journal, Exquisite Corpse: http://www.corpse.org/archives/issue_12/clash/lasken.html


Of course you have to do something before you can quit it.  I was a novice politician for almost a year in 1993, when I ran for a seat on the Los Angeles Unified School District's board.   I walked door to door, badgered people on the street, debated my opponent at public forums and on T.V.  I talked to newspapers, gave them statements, bios, photos. My opponent, the incumbent, was well connected in Democratic circles through his political family.

From the start I had dumb luck.  Most importantly, the teachers union, United Teachers of Los Angeles, declined to make an endorsement in our race, although they had supported the incumbent in his first campaign.  I would have been dead in the water against them.

I also had luck in packaging.  I was a classroom teacher, and this turned out to be a greatly saleable ballot label against my opponent's "Board member" (political operatives know about this and will scrounge to find any past connection between the classroom and their candidates).

I stumbled into a lucky situation with a political sign company.  The first company I approached, a major one in L.A., had been stiffed by a series of candidates and was reluctant to commit to me. My father had loaned me two thousand dollars for my campaign, and I blurted that I would pay this up front with a cashier's check.  Within two days hundreds of signs saying "Keep Askin' for Lasken" were all over the turf in contention (so called Region 5, the western edge of the city running north from Westchester to Chatsworth).  Compounding this beginner's luck was what I found to be a striking naivety in seemingly sophisticated people.  For instance, a school administrator, a follower of news and an activist in neighborhood politics, told me, in reference to the signs, that she had no idea I had so much "support."

My timing with the issues was lucky.  The opinion in the San Fernando Valley was almost entirely for breaking up the giant Los Angeles Unified School District (second largest in the country after New York's), and the west San Fernando Valley, the part in Region 5, was the most intensely pro-breakup.  The incumbent was not in a position to support breakup, and I had supported it for years.

The issue of bilingual education worked in my favor.  Though I supported California's efforts to help non-English speaking children with native language support, I was opposed to the withholding of English language instruction until higher grades.  This played well with voters, anticipating the landslide passage five years later of state Proposition 227, which mandated English language instruction in addition to native language support.  Newspaper editors (in particular L.A. Times opinion editor Jack Miles, author of "God, a Biography") liked the topic, and I was able to publish a series of op-eds in the Los Angeles Times, as well as the Los Angeles Daily News, Los Angeles Magazine, New York Times and others on bilingual education.  The pieces in the L.A. Times appeared during the campaign.

One week before the election I got a call from a pro-choice organization.  They had been planning to send thousands of mailers in support of the incumbent because he had paid them a sizable fee and, of course, was pro-choice.  I had only evinced the latter virtue. It happened that someone in the incumbent's campaign had angered them, and they had decided to support me in the mailer for free.

Topping off my luck, I won a raffle that placed my name first among the seven candidates.  The effect of "1. Doug Lasken-Teacher" was hard to beat as product placement.

The result of my luck: I received 36,000 votes, coming in second behind the incumbent's 50,000 ( turnout was large in this election because of the Riordan-Wu mayoral race).  Had I taken 1% more of his vote, we would have been in a run-off.  The day after the election the L.A. Times referred to "...newcomer Doug Lasken's surprising showing."

I remember standing at a newsstand off Hollywood Boulevard at 6:00a.m. reading, with trembling hands, the Times' hopeful obituary.  Something sank inside me.  The Doors '"This is the End" comes to mind.  I knew I would not "capitalize" on my dumb luck, but I did not know why.  I did not know why I had, at that moment, quit politics.

Well, perhaps what I didn't know was how to say it.  I'm going to try again now: Politicians can't say, "I don't know."

Politicians, in fact, can't say much at all of what they think.  Well "Duh,"you say. Yes, but when you're in a political situation where you're setting yourself up as the person who knows what's best, who has an answer to complex problems, there's a certain poignancy that comes with the knowledge that you're constructing a facade, a veil of words that sounds right, while the much vaunted human cortex watches as from the end of a long tunnel.

The above mental state was produced by certain types of questions, such as, "How would you increase test scores?" There is familiar boilerplate for such questions: "Every student must receive quality instruction...We must have accountability and standards... Education must be our number one priority...", etc.  Not that there is anything incorrect in such sentiments, but if they contained any important policy ideas we would be experiencing a much larger number of high scoring children.  I did my best to sling a few slogans, and I used the English language instruction and breakup issues with some effect, but my brain was uncomfortable, my speech somewhat hesitant, and this perhaps cost me the 1% and the runoff.

Delving deeper into my uncooperative mind, I found something truly scary.  It's not just that I wasn't in a position to say what I really thought about raising test scores.  My hands hover now above the keyboard, waiting for a sign.  No sign comes.  Some muse has got me this far, but at the crucial moment she stands silent.

What the hell, here goes.  Well you see, the thing is... I didn't really know how to raise test scores.  I did believe that breaking up the district might improve efficiency, and that teaching English would improve English skills, but I wasn't completely sure test scores would go up significantly as a result.  After all, when we talk about raising test scores we're not just talking about a few higher scores; we're talking about real improvement in children's intellectual abilities.  How do you get fifth graders in large numbers to know their times-tables, and remember them into secondary school?  How do you get secondary students in large numbers to read books, really read them, from beginning to end?  Why would a few corrective policy changes produce such profound educational outcomes?

Hindsight has justified the hesitation I felt during my campaign. Proposition 227 reinstated English instruction. A well funded "Standards" movement took hold in California and in much of the rest of the country, accompanied by millions of dollars in new textbooks and teacher training.  There has been math reform, with renewed emphasis on basics.  These reforms have helped a lot of kids, but they have not "raised test scores" in a meaningful sense.  In other words, although there have been small jumps in scores, there is no systemic, widespread change in our students.  If you walk into a California classroom at random you are unlikely to find kids who can read well, or want to read, or who do math with the facility you find in Asia.  Nor will you find this two years from now, or four years from now.  It's not happening and it's not going to happen.

Why not?  Because the discussion is political, and therefore incomplete.  Standards are important, and logical instruction is important.  But those are the easy parts.

Back to the reporter asking me how I would raise test scores.  Let's say a cosmic force had ordered me to tell the truth.  What would I have said?  I might have stammered, "Well... I'm not sure."  The standard reporter's brain would then have closed my file, stamping "loser" on it.  But if the cosmic force could get everyone to wait a bit, I could have given a decent answer.  The discussion might have gone something like this:

Me: Well, we have a fundamental disconnect between our media based culture and the school setting.  Virtually every kid is taught by the media to gaze at colored images which ridicule schools and teachers.  We have nothing effective to counter this.  We have not figured out a modern motivation for students.  The U.S. is one of the few countries in the world that has ruled out physical pain as an educational tool.  We do rely on the psychological pain implicit in grades, but because of grade inflation, rampant from kindergarten through graduate school, and the glorification in the media of school failure, grades alone have become a weak motivator for all but a few students.

Reporter: So you advocate beating our students?

Me: Of course not.

Reporter: Then what do you advocate?

Me: We've forgotten economic incentive.

Reporter: For teenagers?

Me: Yes.  Our surplus based society has extended childhood, resulting in dependence on parents at later ages, but teenagers are in their physical and intellectual prime, and will remain so into their twenties.  They are designed to create and work, but the automation that gave us our surplus has resulted in a more seriously underemployed society than we like to admit.  There are over 100,000 gang members in L.A., but there are not 100,000 jobs for them, even menial ones.  The standard curriculum in high school does not relate directly to visible jobs.  Perhaps shop and computer classes do, but the thousands of jobs it would take to rationalize that curriculum do not exist.  Honors students, the handful of clever kids who know how they will work the system, put up with non job-related curricula because they see a path to employment based on grades and general literacy, but they too must wait.  It is arguable that one of the purposes of secondary school is to serve as a holding facility to keep teenagers out of the job market.  The first several years of college may serve the same purpose.

Reporter: So...you would propose.....?

Me: Well, somehow we need to have an economy that can absorb many more teenagers and people in their early twenties, and a school system that clearly feeds into this economy. But our technology, automation, may have made this impossible.

Reporter: How do you propose to remedy this?

Me (after very long pause): I don't know.

End of dialogue, and career.  Even an answer like, "We will have to replace our world economy, built up in haphazard form over three hundred years of industrial revolution, with a completely new, rationally organized economy", impractical as it might be as a campaign position, would be better than "I don't know."  Anything is better than "I don't know."

It might seem strange to an extraterrestrial visitor from an advanced civilization that we have no place in our public discourse for "I don't know," since we so often, clearly, don't know, but it's basic human psychology at work.  Management theorists have shown that leaders get approval for making decisions, for being decisive, regardless of the results (advice routinely followed by politicians). This is understandable given the human condition.  We really don't know what we are supposed to do on this earth, or even if we are supposed to do something.  If our leaders admitted this in public, society at large might collapse in terror.  Still though, it can be something of a hindrance to problem solving to maintain at all times that soothing platitudes are solutions.

So after a refreshing brush with the fast lane, I returned, sober but wiser, to the classroom, where I find I can say "I don't know" a lot, to students, to parents, to my colleagues, and they don't seem to mind.  Hey wait a minute, these people vote, or will vote...Hmmm.

 

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Lincoln-Douglas Debate topic study guide

As a long-time high school debate coach I still like to be useful to students, so I'm posting this study guide to suggest a negative case for the National Speech and Debate Association's Lincoln-Douglas Debate (LD) topic for September/October, 2023:

Resolved: The United States ought to guarantee the right to housing.

I pick the negation because it is less intuitive. If, out of nowhere, I asked you, "Why do people have a right to housing?", your first response might be, "People will freeze to death if they don't have somewhere to sleep." If I asked you, on the other hand, "Why do people not have a right to housing?", you might need to ponder. If you are a debate competitor, you'll need to respond in a timely fashion because debate requires each competitor to argue both sides. The suggestions below are designed to help you ponder the resolution's negation.

First a brief look at LD. It is named for the famous series of debates between Abraham Lincoln and Stephan Douglas in 1858, part of the campaign in which Lincoln tried to take the seat of the Illinois state senate incumbent, Douglas. Lincoln lost that election, but the debates, seen as presaging today's mass media driven politics, made Lincoln famous across the nation and boosted his successful bid for the presidency in 1860.

Lincoln-Douglas high school debate is also called "values debate" because its argumentation emulates the 1858 debates, which addressed the morality of slavery using values based arguments, as opposed to policy. It is a one-on-one debate. The topics are released two months in advance, so hundreds of students are now working on this topic. I hope my study suggestions are useful to you!

Outline for suggested negation case for the Sept./Oct. NSDA LD topic, Resolved: The United States ought to guarantee the right to housing.

1. By using the article "the" in "the right to housing," the wording of the resolution asserts that there is a right to housing (Using "a" instead of "the" would perhaps have been a wiser choice by the resolution authors, lending ambiguity, and so defensibility to the claim of a "right").

2. What is a "right"?

3. My source for all definitions is the Merriam-Webster Dictionary. A "right" is "something to which someone has a just claim."

4. What is a "just claim"?

5. The nature of the subsequent argument will hinge on the definition of "just claim." Depending on which definition you choose, you could have either an affirmative (Aff) or a negative (Neg) argument.

6. If you choose, "legally correct: Lawful," then you have demolished the Aff case, since there is no law requiring that people be housed. This is probably all you need for a Neg case.

7. If the Aff defines "just claim" as one "having a basis in or conforming to reason: reasonable", here's a possible response:

8. What is "reason"?

9. Reason is "the power of comprehending, inferring, thinking."

10. Thus, an assertion that universal housing is a "just claim" indicates a contention that this opinion stems from thinking and analyzing information.

11. If the Aff uses the "thinking" argument, point out that the Neg thought about it too and came to a different conclusion, rendering the Aff argument meaningless. QED, You win.

12. More ammunition if needed: The Aff case is further vulnerable because of the resolution's use of the term "ought" in "ought to support the right to housing." "Ought" is commonly defined by LD'ers as denoting moral obligation. In normal thought and conversation, it is acceptable just to "feel" a moral obligation, and the idea that people should be housed comes naturally with such a feeling, but in debate, contentions must be proven. Moral rightness cannot be a feeling, or a given; its nature must be demonstrated as part of a convincing "proof." Etymology is helpful here, but not definitively: "moral" comes from Latin, "mos," meaning "custom." So moral behavior, as originally conceived, is behavior that conforms to local custom. To conjur up the modern definitions, the dictionary gives us, not an explanation of what "moral behavior" is, but a string of synonyms, e.g. "good," "right," "ethical," etc, going in circles and leaving us with only a word history indicating that a "moral" behavior is one that is sanctioned by a particular society. But societies differ. One society might value death in battle. Another might not. Determination of morality is subjective; ipso facto a morality code cannot prove that a particular action is the only morally correct one. Thus Neg wins.


Of course none of these considerations is intended to "prove" that everyone should not have housing. In fact I think they should. But it's remarkably difficult to prove they have a right to it, or that they don't.

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Gaian Mentalics Unite!

Isaac Asimov's six-novel science fiction series, Foundation (1951-1988) covers a vast future history of human civilization. Its beginning is already far in the future, after humans have colonized and conquered our galaxy and created a Galactic Empire. Despite the time and space differences, Foundation's fictional history seems closely parallel to our current real history. In both histories, humanity faces collapse and destruction and is called on to respond intelligently.

In the story, a scientist named Hari Seldon works out a mathematical forecast, using a method he terms psychohistory, which indicates that the Empire will soon fall, followed by a dark age lasting 30,000 years. Seldon sets out to create two secret "foundations" - one at Earth's end of the galaxy and one at the far end- whose members would use psychohistory to affect history. Seldon predicts that with planning and interventions from the foundations, the galaxy's dark age can be shortened to 1,000 years.

In the more limited context of our single planet, we too face collapse of our human civilizations, spelled out in our new creations in biotech and AI. The collapse will be a rebirth, as we are replaced with an updated species. Old style humans involved in the transition's rollout- either through science, business or politics- will be somewhat protected, but most of humanity will face a brutal retirement and attendant dark age.

What if we had a "foundation," not necessarily secret as in the novel, to help with this transition, to make it less of a dark age? Such a group could be composed of visionaries, scientists, political thinkers and, most crucially, retired English teachers! Its functioning would not be like that of political parties, which reflect and distort the noise of the moment. This foundation would think in terms, not of election seasons, but of centuries and millennia. Though it might not have statutory power, it should have the ear of power and a significant bully pulpit.

Asimov was a realist in the sense that he was not utopian. The foundations in his story work reasonably well and according to Seldon's plan for a few centuries, restoring structure to galactic society, but then any number of things start going to hell, among them a resurgence of selfish egos in politics. Complicating the picture, the First Foundation, as it thinks of itself, has lost track of the Second, and develops anxiety and paranoia about it. When the Second Foundation is located (in the vicinity of "a mythical planet called Earth") we learn that Second Foundation progeny have evolved into Mentalics, who can read and manipulate the emotions of others (even more than people can today!). It turns out that Mentalics are everywhere, carrying out conspiracies within conspiracies that Hari Seldon may or may not have engineered.

The coolest thing in the story, to me, is a forgotten planet called Gaia, possibly unforseen by Seldon, which "is inhabited solely by Mentalics to such an extent that every organism and inanimate object on the planet shares a common mind." That alone would seem to justify the galactic experiment.

The story ends with the two foundations agreeing to disagree: the First Foundation based on "mastery of the physical world and its traditional political organization," and the Second Foundation "based on Mentalics and probable rule by an elite using mind control." A third force is Gaia, with "its path of absorption of the entire galaxy into one shared, harmonious living entity in which all beings, and the galaxy itself, would be a part."

Asimov's foundations do not save humanity, but they do express humanity's thoughts on saving itself, in non-utopian terms. Our formulations should not be utopian either. Setting up a foundation that employs the long-view of the human project, and imbuing it with prestige and authority of sorts, would not be the same as saving the planet, or even a country. But it could be a useful escape from the deceptions of party politics, whose only concrete goal today is to see a nuclear weapon go off in Ukraine.

A foundation could give us a shot at more productive goals, with a sense of future.

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Three quick thoughts

1. This section of the post originally speculated that Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of the Wagner mercenary group operating in the Ukraine/Russia war, would serve as an agent introducing the first post-World War II use of nuclear weapons, probably in Belarus. With confirmation on 8/27/23 of Prigozhin's death in a plane crash, my speculation is put to rest. It does still appear that nukes will be used in this war, judging by the current attempts to make that seem like normal warfare, just as the world wars of the last century made world wars seem normal.

2. The covert purpose of post- WW II use of nuclear weapons will be to terrorize human populations to the extent that no one will be in a position to object to or even notice the conversion of our species into a genetically engineered, AI governed new species.

3. Virginia Woolf is never funny.  

  

ISIS: A virtual reality

[This piece is reposted from 4/9/22, updated in the context of Israel vs. Hamas and Ukraine vs. Russia, with reference to the recent ISIS...